Inglaterra/UK

Fazendo uma breve leitura dos analistas de Inglaterra/UK, após a reação inicial de surpresa por parte dos ativos de risco, começa a se formar um consenso em torno do cenário para a região. O risco de uma posição de negociação mais fraca para o Brexit é evidente, mas existem riscos também na outra ponta (positivos).

O DB resumiu bem, trazendo a tona um estudo que fizeram no ano passado, a mudança estrutural que o mundo vem apresentando. De maneira geral, ve-se a possibilidade de uma política fiscal mais frouxa no país, uma menor dependência da política monetária e um câmbio mais depreciado, que acaba ajudando o crescimento.

O mundo está passando por uma transformação sem precedentes em relação a composição da população e seus anseios. A classe política precisa entender isso e dançar conforme a música. Na atual conjuntura, supresas como o Brexit, Trump e as eleições de ontem continuarão a ocorrer.

Leiam o que escreveu o DB:

Whatever the overall results of this election some of the stats about potential age demographics of the voters is very interesting. Sky did a poll on election day and found amongst 18-34 year olds Labour were on 63% and Conservatives 27%. With 35-54 year olds both were on 43% and over 55 year olds Labour on 23% and Conservatives on 59%. Labour made a huge push for the young who don't normally vote in high numbers and the Conservative Party actually proposed policies that worked against their natural older vote perhaps thinking their early lead in the polls gave them an opportunity to try to balance the books more. So were the young more motivated than normal and were the elderly less motivated?

It's fascinating as this shows the dilemma a lot of politicians have around the world. We generally have a wealth divide where the older generation (who normally vote) have a high proportion of it relative to the young who are generally in debt and/or in many countries unemployed. It feels this divide is at the higher end of the historical range.

Are the young starting to rebel more and are looking for hope? Can you politically afford to attack the wealthier older voter to help redistribution? One of the big themes of our long-term study last year was that we thought we were at the end of a 35 year super cycle of policy, politics and with it interest rates and asset prices. Our argument was that the Trump and Brexit vote marked the turning point when the disenfranchised were starting to actually win elections/referendums. If policy wasn't increasingly calibrated to these 'forgotten' people then the incumbents would get voted out. What we felt was that this would mean more fiscal spending, bigger deficits and less reliance on monetary policy at least until fixed income markets rebelled and then you'd probably get central banks forced to monetise that debt. This was our slow roadmap for the future and nights like last night may be another inching towards that. As Mr Trump has discovered it's not easy to increase spending though but I think the trend will be up in the years to come.

O Morgan Stanley caminhou na mesma direção:

Discussing GBP. This morning the main market discussion point is the UK General election result showing a tectonic shift in UK voting behaviour compared to previous expectations. Only one month ago the expectation was that the Conservatives would win big, and secure a landslide victory. This morning’s results present a very different picture, with left-leaning Labour under Jeremy Corbyn beating the most optimistic expectations. At the moment it looks like the UK is heading towards a weakened Conservative-led government, reliant on the Northern Irish Unionists for support, although a Labour-led coalition of many parties cannot yet be completely ruled out. In either case, the election outcome suggests looser fiscal conditions, a weaker UK Brexit negotiation position and – with the SNP losing 21 seats in Scotland – a reduced likelihood of a second Scottish independence referendum, which are GBP positive factors. However, political instability and the prospect of weakened ‘supply economics’ work against GBP.

There is GBP hope. Over recent days we have advocated the view of selling GBP whatever the election outcome. This morning we have to nuance this view. Should the Conservatives remain in government control, probably with the support of Northern Irish Unionists, then the outcome for GBP could be better. This political constellation would still project easier fiscal conditions compared to current government projections, Britain’s Brexit negotiation position would be softer compared to its previous stance while the economy may not have to fear the market-unfriendly policies which would come into place in the case of a Jeremy Corbyn-led UK government.