Externo: Semana começa tranquila.
Os ativos de risco estão abrindo a
semana com tom de relativa tranquilidade e estabilidade. Destaque para uma leve
recuperação no preço das commodities, liderada por uma alta do Minério de Ferro esta noite.
No México, as eleições regionais afastaram, temporariamente, o risco
de vitória de partidos extremistas nas eleições gerais, o que está ajudando o
movimento de quase 2% de apreciação do MXN.
Na Austrália, os “business indicators” do 1Q mostraram um quadro de
crescimento menos negativo do que se temia as vésperas da divulgação do PIB no
país, o que também está ajudando a dar suporte a moeda do país (AUD). Segundo a
Goldman Sachs:
Today's
business indicators report was broadly stronger than expected - featuring solid
and broad-based growth in profits (to an around decade high in the non-mining
sector) and sales volumes, both at the corporate and unincorporated level. In
concert with a larger than expected ~+40bp boost to 1Q2017 GDP from the
inventory cycle, today's update has stronger implications for 1Q2017 GDP and we
have revised up our tracking estimate by +10bp to +0.4%qoq to reflect this. To
be clear, wages growth in the economy remains weak - however, we have argued
that a major positive income shock which has clearly buoyed non-mining
profitability and sentiment will filter through to wages over 2Q2017. In turn, just as the RBA has signaled greater conviction in its forecast solid recovery in growth, we remain of
the view that the market has adopted an overly negative stance on the recent
local economic news flow. We believe the market is under-estimating the
probability of a rate hike in the medium term (GS: +25bp in November 2017).
No Brasil, os jornais trazem poucas novidades em relação ao que já
discuti neste fórum durante o final de semana.
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