Riscos: Trump e China.

Os mercados financeiros globais estão efetivamente iniciando o ano nesta terça-feira, com o retorno do feriado dos EUA. Por ora, estamos iniciando o ano em um tom positivo, com as bolsas e as commodities em alta, uma abertura de taxas de juros no mundo desenvolvido, mas com um desempenho misto do dólar no mundo.

Algumas notícias externas chamam a atenção, mas nenhuma altera de forma significativa, ainda, o cenário econômico global.

EUA – Segundo o FT, Trump irá nomear um protecionista para o cargo de “trade representative”. Se confirmada a nomeação, a postura de Trump irá sinalizar para os riscos que ainda existem de seu novo governo. Como tenho afirmado neste fórum, acredito que o mercado tenha precificado os efeitos positivos da plataforma econômica anunciada pelo novo presidente americano em sua campanha, mas ainda existem riscos que parecem estar sendo totalmente ignorados pelos investidores neste momento.

De acordo com o FT: Donald Trump is expected to tap a longtime advocate of greater protectionism as his US trade representative in yet another signal that his administration is poised to enact the aggressive trade policies he advocated during the campaign into government. Robert Lighthizer, whose impending nomination was reported by US media on Monday, has been seen as the favourite for the trade role for weeks and has been leading the Trump transition team’s meetings with Obama administration trade officials.  He served as deputy US trade representative in the administration of Ronald Reagan at a time when the office was renowned for its trade battles with Japan and has long represented the US steel industry as a partner at law firm Skadden Arps.  As US trade representative, Mr Lighthizer would play a key role in delivering on Mr Trump’s campaign promises to crack down on unfair trading practices by China and to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement with Canada and Mexico.  His appointment, which would have to be confirmed by Congress, would be the latest signal of what is likely to be a major shift in US trade policy when Mr Trump takes office on January 20. The incoming Republican president has already vowed to pull the US out of the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a vast Asia-Pacific trade deal negotiated by President Barack Obama. He also has threatened to impose punitive tariffs on China in what some fear could become the trigger for a trade war between the world’s two largest economies.  Mr Lighthizer, who served as treasurer of Bob Dole’s ill-fated 1996 run for president, would be the latest prominent trade hawk to join the Trump administration. The president-elect before Christmas named Peter Navarro, an economist and author of a book entitled “Death by China”, to lead a new National Trade Council within the White House. He also has nominated billionaire investor Wilbur Ross to serve as commerce secretary, a role from which he is expected to guide the administration’s trade policy. 

China – O WSJ traz reportagem em que o FMI alerta para os riscos do mercado de crédito na China. O problema da expansão excessiva do crédito no país existe já há alguns anos e se intensificou nos últimos meses, já que o governo utilizou as mesmas praticas de estímulos com o intuito de dar sustentação ao crescimento ao longo de 2016. Agora, acredito que os police makers adotaram uma postura mais neutra, ou talvez até mais restritiva, visando administrar os excessos da economia. Está postura aponta para um menor crescimento nos próximos meses e não afasta, em definitivo, os riscos do mercado de crédito. Por ora, uma crise mais aguda devido aos excessos da economia ainda não é o cenário central, mas um risco que precisa ser endereçado com urgência.

Segundo o WSJ: “Risks appear high but manageable if the problem is addressed promptly,” fund economists warn in a new blog post. But the window is closing quickly, the IMF adds. “China urgently needs to tackle its corporate-debt problem before it becomes a major drag on growth.” Analysts says that President Xi Jinping is slow-walking economic overhauls ahead of a major leadership reshuffle, relying on policies of the past that fuel growth now at the expense of the longer-term health of the economy. But the IMF says Beijing should sacrifice near-term growth to secure future economic health. That requires doing more than the government has done so far to recalibrate the financial system. China’s credit boom already looks eerily familiar, mimicking past financial booms that were followed by busts.

Brasil – Ainda estamos em um momento relativamente sem novidades relevantes no cenário. O presidente da Câmara dos deputados está afirmando que a Reforma da Previdência deverá ser aprovada ainda no primeiro semestre e isso irá abrir caminho para juros abaixo de 10% no Brasil.

O mercado continua focado na próxima reunião do Copom, com as apostas para um corte superior a 50bps crescendo nos últimos dias. O mercado de opções digitais mostra probabilidade em torno de 65% de queda de 50bps e de 25% de queda de 75bps no Copom de janeiro.