Guerra Comercial

Visão bem importante do DB sobre a Guerra Comercial. Na linha do que tenho escrito diariamente (vide aqui: https://mercadosglobais.blogspot.com/).

By the time you read this I’ll be flying back from the US West Coast and hopefully blissfully asleep. At the conference I was attending there was a panel on US politics with a couple of Washington insiders and a couple of things struck me from the conversation. Firstly, virtually every market person I’ve spoken to over the last few months wants a deal, pretty much any deal. However, in listening to the panel it’s quite clear that China has few friends on the trade front in Washington across the political spectrum. Also, the view was that behind closed doors virtually all US corporates were supportive of being more aggressive with China on Trade. They may not say so publicly but the impression given was that in private they believed the current trading relationship made life tougher for them. So, working in markets it’s easy to focus on the price action negatives and assume a rational compromise at some point. However, there is a bigger story than this. What makes this challenging though is that Mr Trump did everything to suggest he wanted a deal early this year and it looked like he was clearing the way for one regardless of the above support for more action. So second guessing the President’s next move is the hard part but don’t underestimate the support for a more aggressive stance politically and at a corporate level.

From DB