BRL em Foco.

A noite foi de poucas novidades para os ativos de risco e para o cenário econômico global. Hoje pela manhã, destaque para a abertura de taxa das Treasuries. O dólar opera sem tendência definida, as bolsas e as commodities operam próximas a estabilidade. Neste ambiente, persiste a minha visão de um curto-prazo de acomodação, devido as incertezas trazidas pelo processo de normalização monetária no G10 (e abertura de taxas de juros nos EUA) em meio a um cenário estrutural que ainda vejo como construtivo. Para mais detalhes desta visão, ver os comentários mais profundos aqui: https://mercadosglobais.blogspot.com.br/.

Deixo aqui a recomendação do DB em torno do BRL. Eu, particularmente, ainda vejo a moeda se mantendo no range de 3,05-3,25, mas acho razoável mostra as visões mais otimistas que já se alastram no mercado em relação a moeda local:

In a recent report published both as a stand–alone (see BRL – Can flows pick up the baton from carry?) and as a special report in the latest EM Monthly (see Emerging Markets Monthly - Rebalancing Risks) we recommend remaining exposed to the BRL. And while in the latest FX Blueprint we had also favored long BRL positions, back then our argument was mainly driven by the currency's relatively high carry.(see FX Blueprint – People Power). This time however, our recommendation to buy BRL is driven as much by the BRL's relatively high volatility adjusted values as by the improving macro fundamentals of Brazil's economy. In the week prior to the publication of the EM Monthly, the BRL had very clearly outperformed its peers most likely on the back of a very successful auction held by the Brazilian government aimed at raising fiscal revenues in exchange for rights to operate some of Brazil's electrical plans Yet we believe that the BRL's performance is more than a just a one–off driven by auctions. We expect FDI flows into Brazil, in particular, to remain strong and possibly strengthen if China delivers on signals it could invest USD20bn in Brazil in 2018. Portfolio inflows have been lackluster (surprisingly so in fixed income), but it the upturn in the economy gains momentum we find foreign investors under-allocated in local equities. In this case, and as monetary easing tends to attract inflows, we believe that BoP could take the baton from carry as a driver of BRL strength – even if carry – once adjusted by vols – remains attractive. Currency strength or stability would reduce demand for hedges and allow the CB to eliminate its “forward” position comfortably. Funding remains a more difficult choice, in our view. We recommend long BRL/CLP on the view that the CLP’s recent rally on the back of copper prices has is a temporary phenomenon while inflation and that a dovish BCCh could ease rates further unless the peso weakens. If EUR strength resumes into 2018 as we expect we believe USD/BRL could test 3.0 – which also bodes for short USD/BRL. More conservatively in the near term short EUR/USD could be an alternative – or just the middle ground of a basket of USD/EUR. We leave the EUR/USD call aside (again, assuming near-term USD strength retracing into 2018).