Skill vs Luck

Quando um bom gestor, analista ou trader muda de “casa”, não necessariamente conseguirá manter sua perfomance.

Na verdade, existem estudos que mostram que o ambiente onde a pessoa trabalha pode ser fundamental em seu desempenho.

Por isso que o estudo de fundos, gestoras e gestores demanda um pouco de arte, além da ciência quantitativa.

Em um momento em que surgem novos nomes independentes não podemos perder isso de vista!

"Groysberg examined all of the moves by ranked analysts over a twenty-year period and found 366 instances of a star analyst moving to another firm. If the skill were associated solely with the analyst, you would expect the star's performance to remain stable when he or she changed jobs. That is not what the data showed. Groysberg writes, “Star analysts who switched employers paid a high price for jumping ship relative to comparable stars who stayed put: overall, their job performance plunged sharply and continued to suffer for at least five years after moving to a new firm.” He considered a number of explanations for the deterioration in performance and concluded that the main factor was that they left behind a good fit between their skills and the resources of their employer." 

The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing (English Edition)" de Michael J. Mauboussin