China: Dados positivos. PBoC mais hawkish.

Os ativos de risco estão operando próximos a estabilidade. O destaque da noite ficou por conta dos dados econômicos de junho na China. Os números mostraram uma economia ainda robusta, com crescimento acima das expectativas do mercado. O PIB do 2H, por exemplo, apresentou alta de 6,9% YoY, acima das expectativas de 6,8% YoY. Os dados de produção industrial, vendas no varejo e fixed asset investment, apresentaram expansão superiores às expectativas.

Por um lado, os números de hoje reafirmam um cenário de crescimento sólido e saudável, não apenas da economia chinesa, mas de toda a economia global. Contudo, por outro lado, os números de hoje abrem espaço para os policy makers chineses manterem uma política monetária e fiscal mais apertadas, visando administrar o eventual surgimento de excessos e bolhas na economia. Nesta frente, a National Financial Work Conference realizada ao longo deste final de semana manteve um tom mais hawkish que já vem sendo regra nos últimos meses. Segundo o Morgan Stanley:

Bottom line: The latest National Financial Work Conference, chaired by President Xi, confirms continued policy focus on reining in leverage and financial risks, including a pledge to continue with economic deleveraging (particularly in SOEs), and establishing a Financial Stability Development Committee to enhance policy coordination and close regulatory loopholes. We think it indicates that policymakers will maintain a hawkish bias on regulatory requirements and keep monetary conditions relatively tight to slow broad credit growth.

Highlights of the conference: The conference (held every five years) sets the key reform and regulatory framework for China’s financial industry. The past four had a special role in boosting financial developments over the past 20 years, such as establishing AMCs and recapitalization of the big four banks in 1997, creating a banking regulator and shareholding reforms for state-owned banks in 2002, promoting bond financing and launching a sovereign wealth fund in 2007, and further liberalizing the capital account in 2012 (Exhibit 1). However, during the latest (held on July 14-15), the focus has shifted from boosting developments to reining in financial risks and leverage. Whereas the Premier chaired the past four conferences, the President chaired the latest one, suggesting that top leaders have put a higher priority on risk management in the financial system.

The three key tasks listed by President Xi are to make the financial sector serve the real economy better, contain financial risks, and deepen financial reforms.

No Brasil, os jornais do final de semana trouxeram pouquíssimas novidades relevantes.