EUA - Minutas do FOMC: Alguns comentários.

As Minutas do Fed mostram um Comitê mais convicto no cenário de recuperação do crescimento, mais preocupado com o aperto do mercado de trabalho e do nível de preço dos ativos financeiros, além de mais confiante da evolução dos “custos do trabalho”. Abaixo, compilei algumas passagens que mostram que as expressões utilizadas pelos mais hawkish apontam para uma quantidade maior de participantes do que as expressões utilizadas pelos participantes mais dovish.

De maneira geral, achei as Minutas em linha com os dados recentes e um pouco mais hawkish, abrindo espaço para mais altas de juros este ano.

O mercado, por ora, está reagindo como se as Minutas tivessem sido mais dovish. Consigo explicar este movimento como: (1) Um risco que talvez tenha saída da frente no curto-prazo, (2) O mercado esperava algo mais hawkish ainda, ou (3) reação pontual, puxadas por fluxos pontuais e “robôs).

As Minutas em nada alteram meu cenário base. Os mercados financeiros globais me parecem estar passando por um momento de acomodação após a piora verificada recentemente.

Financial Inbalance:

Regulatory actions and improved risk management in recent years had put the financial system in a better position to withstand adverse shocks, such as a substantial decline in asset prices, than in the past. However, amid elevated asset valuations and an increased use of debt by nonfinancial corporations, several participants cautioned that imbalances in financial markets may begin to emerge as the economy continued to operate above potential. In this environment, increased use of leverage by nonbank financial institutions might be difficult to detect in a timely manner. It was also noted that the Committee should regularly reassess risks to the financial system and their implications for the economic outlook in light of the potential for changes in regulatory policies over time.

Wage Pressure:

During their discussion of labor market conditions, participants expressed a range of views about recent wage developments. While some participants heard more reports of wage pressures from their business contacts over the intermeeting period, participants generally noted few signs of a broad-based pickup in wage growth in available data. With regard to how firms might use part of their tax savings to boost compensation, a few participants suggested that such a boost could be in the form of onetime bonuses or variable pay rather than a permanent increase in wage structures. It was noted that the pace of wage gains might not increase appreciably if productivity growth remains low. That said, a number of participants judged that the continued tightening in labor markets was likely to translate into faster wage increases at some point.

Labor Market:

Many participants reported that labor market conditions were tight in their Districts, evidenced by low unemployment rates, difficulties for employers in filling open positions or retaining workers, or some signs of upward pressure on wages. The unemployment rate, at 4.1 percent, had remained near the lowest level seen in the past 20 years. It was noted that other labor market indicators—such as the U-6 measure of unemployment or the share of involuntary part-time employment—had returned to their pre-recession levels. A few participants judged that while the labor market was close to full employment, some margins of slack remained; these participants pointed to the employment-to-population ratio or the labor force participation rate for prime-age workers, which remained below pre-recession levels, as well as the absence to date of clear signs of a pickup in aggregate wage growth.