Risk-off: Mantenham os seus cintos afivelados.

Os índices de bolsa na China voltaram a apresentar forte queda (superior a 2%), levando consigo das demais bolsas da Ásia e do resto do mundo. Os mercados, neste momento, operam com um viés clássico de risk-off, ou seja, com queda acentuada das bolsas, fechamento de taxa de juros, queda do dólar contra moedas do G10 (em especial JPY) e alta dos metais preciosos.

Não há novidades relevantes  além do que já tenho comentado neste fórum (aqui: https://mercadosglobais.blogspot.com/2018/10/reflexoes-do-final-de-semana-pontos.html e aqui https://mercadosglobais.blogspot.com/2018/10/china-jogando-uma-boia-aos-ativos-de.html), mas a ausência do endereçamento dessas questões é um ponto de atrito para a continuidade de um cenário global ainda desafiador.

A China anunciou novas medidas de suporte a sua economia, desta vez voltada para o financiamento do setor corporativo. Segundo a Goldman Sachs:

The State Council stated that, under the challenges brought on by the changing external environment, the government will implement measures to strengthen business sentiment and competitiveness of firms. First, there will be fewer limitations on access to capital markets. Before the end of March 2019, all foreign investment restrictions outside of the negative list will be abolished. Foreign and domestic capital will be treated equally. Second, administrative procedures, such as administrative licensing, will be trimmed down, and redundant licensing will be cancelled. Third, approval for corporate investment will be simplified; for instance, all applications for corporate investment will be online by next year. Fourth, there will be a further reduction to the tax burden on firms, and there will be more stringent supervision over the collection of service charges. Fifth, there will also be improvement to and a streamlining in administrative services.

In addition, the PBOC announced there will be more support for private enterprises via a market-oriented approach. On top of the RMB150 bn re-lending and re-discount credits in June this year, the PBOC will issue an additional RMB150 bn in re-lending and re-discount credits to encourage the financing of micro-enterprises and SMEs, especially those with liquidity constraints. This relending measures will be a modest additional boost to TSF growth which saw a modest slowdown in growth yoy in September.

No Brasil, segundo o Estadão, Rodrigo Maia irá tocar uma agenda favorável a Jair Bolsonaro caso confirmada sua eleição, como o projeto que revoga o Estatuto do Desarmamento. A ideia seria se aproximar do potencial candidato eleito.