Cenário político turvo na Alemanha. Novas restrições na China.

Os ativos de risco estão operando próximos a estabilidade, com leve viés negativo, após as negociações para a formação de um governo de coalização na Alemanha falharem. Não perece que o cenário político no país será um vetor determinante para a economia local e/ou global, mas a incerteza pode trazer alguma volatilidade de curto-prazo.

O Citibank fez um bom resumo das possibilidades de agora em diante:

·         Chancellor Merkel will brief President Steinmeier about the situation this morning, after which all parties will deliberate internally on the next steps. We pointed the three options:

·         Grand coalition: SPD would have to make U-turn – First, Merkel could (at least informally) attempt to build a Grand Coalition with the SPD. The centre-left party had chosen opposition after a very weak result in the election. By last night, there was no sign that it might change opinion, but we do not rule it out as splits in the party could emerge under pressure to avoid new elections. CDU and SPD have just formed a regional government in Lower Saxony within one week. Positions are largely aligned, relations good and new elections may make collaboration inevitable anyway. However, some in the SPD may demand that Merkel steps down.

·         New elections: Complicated process – Germany has had early elections before (1972, 1983, 2005), but each time they took place after a lost confidence vote. That route is closed to Merkel. Under Art. 63 of the German constitution, the Bundestag would first have to elect a new Chancellor upon proposal by the President, which is possible with a relative majority after 14 days of nobody getting an absolute majority. The President can then within 7 days confirm the winner or dissolve Parliament, which would lead to early elections within 60 days. There is no deadline to launch the process, but if the SPD does not open up to a Grand coalition, it could start soon and elections could be held probably in January at the earliest.

·         Minority government: Unusual but possible – Germany has not had minority federal governments before, and Merkel herself appeared to rule it out after the elections in September. However, the process described above makes it relatively straightforward to form. As the CDU’s programme is not particularly ambitious, Merkel might be able to obtain majorities for some policies such as modest tax cuts (with support from the SPD and FDP), increases in defence spending (FDP, AfD) and euro policies (SPD, Greens). A minority administration might be more stable than it appears as the opposition could only oust Merkel with a “constructive vote of no confidence”, meaning it would have to align on an alternative opposition candidate first, which seems unlikely. In other countries (e. g. Spain, UK), minority governments have been formed amid arguably more challenging political environments than in Germany. We do not rule out such a scenario either.

A China anunciou mais uma rodada de aperto/restrição ao mercado local de crédito/investimentos. As medidas devem ser vistas como positivas a longo-prazo, pois vão na direção de desalavancar a economia e administrar os excessos em setores específicos. No curto-prazo, as medidas podem trazer alguma desaceleração do crescimento e efeitos pontuais mais negativos em alguns mercados e classes de ativos. O Morgan Stanley resumiu a situação da seguinte maneira:

·     China’s new regulations plan to streamline oversight of asset-management products sold by financial institutions. The move is aimed at reining in risk and putting an end to practices that take advantage of regulatory loopholes. China’s new regulation has potentially already developed a temporary negative impact on risk appetite. Our Asian economists suggest China will break out of its middle income trap despite getting tougher on its regulation. Indeed, a financial de-risking strategy is required to reduce China’s debt dependence especially on its corporate sector. China will have to learn to grow without further aggregate debt creation, suggesting shifting its growth from investment/manufacturing towards its consumption/service sectors. Financial sector regulation is part of this strategy, but also includes a shift of funds into China’s household sectors via higher wages, higher saving deposit incomes, better social security and a stable RMB boosting households' real disposable income. Investors should not forget that China’s de-leveraging strategy requires support via strong global economic growth and it will function best when the USD remains weak.

No Brasil, os jornais continuam repercutindo a Reforma Ministerial e a possibilidade de votação da Reforma da Previdência na primeira semana de dezembro. De acordo com a mídia, Rodrigo Maia está saindo fortalecido da Reforma Ministerial e parece alinhado com o Planalto em prol da Reforma da Previdência. Meus comentários de ontem seguem válidos:  https://mercadosglobais.blogspot.com.br/2017/11/brasil-governo-faz-esforco-final-pela.html.