Minutas do FOMC confirmam mudança de tom.

As Minutas do FOMC, na minha visão, confirmam uma mudança clara de tom por parte do Fed. Em comparação com as Minutas recentes, e com os discursos recentes, percebo um aumento do número de participantes desconfortáveis com alguns sinais da economia, especialmente global, e de alguns movimentos dos ativos de risco como um todo.

O Fed está dependente dos dados, muito mais do que antes, mas há uma mudança de tonica que não pode ser ignorada. As Minutas de hoje reforçam os meus comentários recentes (https://mercadosglobais.blogspot.com/2018/11/year-end-rally-configurado-e-reforcado.html e https://mercadosglobais.blogspot.com/2018/11/a-janela-de-oportunidade-continua.html).

Separei alguns destaques abaixo:

Based on recent readings on spending, prices, and the labor market, participants generally indicated little change in their assessment of the economic outlook, with above-trend economic growth expected to continue before slowing to a pace closer to trend over the medium term. Participants pointed to several factors supporting above-trend growth, including strong employment gains, expansionary federal tax and spending policies, and continued high levels of consumer and business confidence. Several participants observed that the stimulative effects of fiscal policy would likely diminish over time, while the lagged effects of reductions in monetary policy accommodation would show through more fully, with both factors contributing to their expectation that economic growth would slow to a pace closer to trend.

Although household spending overall was seen as strong, most participants noted weakness in residential investment. This weakness was attributed to a variety of factors, including increased mortgage rates, building cost increases, and supply constraints.

Reports from District contacts in the manufacturing, energy, and service sectors were generally favorable, though growth in manufacturing activity was reportedly moderating in a couple of Districts. Business contacts generally remained optimistic about the outlook, but concerns about trade policy, slowing foreign demand, and labor shortages were reportedly weighing on business prospects. Contacts in the agricultural sector reported that conditions remain depressed, in part, due to the effects of trade policy actions on exports and farm incomes.

Contacts in many Districts continued to report tight labor markets with difficulties finding qualified workers. In some cases, firms were responding to these difficulties by increasing training for less-qualified workers, outsourcing work, or automating production, while in other cases, firms were responding by raising wages. Contacts in a couple of Districts indicated that labor shortages, particularly for skilled labor, might be constraining activity in certain industries. Participants observed that, at the national level, measures of nominal wage growth appeared to be picking up. Many participants noted that the recent pace of aggregate wage gains was broadly consistent with trends in productivity growth and inflation.

Participants commented on a number of risks and uncertainties associated with their outlook for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation over the medium term. A few participants indicated that uncertainty had increased recently, pointing to the high levels of uncertainty regarding the effects of fiscal and trade policies on economic activity and inflation. Some participants viewed economic and financial developments abroad, including the possibility of further appreciation of the U.S. dollar, as posing downside risks for domestic economic growth and inflation. A couple of participants expressed the concern that measures of inflation expectations would remain low, particularly if economic growth slowed more than expected. Several participants were concerned that the high level of debt in the nonfinancial business sector, and especially the high level of leveraged loans, made the economy more vulnerable to a sharp pullback in credit availability, which could exacerbate the effects of a negative shock on economic activity. The potential for an escalation in tariffs or trade tensions was also cited as a factor that could slow economic growth more than expected. With regard to upside risks, participants noted that greater-than-expected effects of fiscal stimulus and high consumer confidence could lead to stronger-than-expected economic outcomes. Some participants raised the concern that tightening resource utilization in conjunction with an increase in the ability of firms to pass through increases in tariffs or in other input costs to consumer prices could generate undesirable upward pressure on inflation. In general, participants agreed that risks to the outlook appeared roughly balanced.

Participants emphasized that the Committee's approach to setting the stance of policy should be importantly guided by incoming data and their implications for the economic outlook. They noted that their expectations for the path of the federal funds rate were based on their current assessment of the economic outlook. Monetary policy was not on a preset course; if incoming information prompted meaningful reassessments of the economic outlook and attendant risks, either to the upside or the downside, their policy outlook would change. Various factors such as the recent tightening in financial conditions, risks in the global outlook, and some signs of slowing in interest-sensitive sectors of the economy on the one hand, and further indicators of tightness in labor markets and possible inflationary pressures, on the other hand, were noted in this context. Participants also commented on how the Committee's communications in its postmeeting statement might need to be revised at coming meetings, particularly the language referring to the Committee's expectations for "further gradual increases" in the target range for the federal funds rate. Many participants indicated that it might be appropriate at some upcoming meetings to begin to transition to statement language that placed greater emphasis on the evaluation of incoming data in assessing the economic and policy outlook; such a change would help to convey the Committee's flexible approach in responding to changing economic circumstances.