Update.

O final de semana foi, até o momento, de poucas novidades para o cenário.

No Brasil, os jornais continuam especulando em torno de nomes de possíveis envolvidos na Operação Lava-Jato mas, até agora, sem nenhuma novidade concreta que possa abalar a agenda de reformas econômicas. O país continua em um cenário de inflação cadente e crescimento pressionado, o que deverá dar impulso a um ciclo longo e agressivo de queda de taxa de juros. As contas externas continuam apresentando um quadro bastante saudável, com investimentos estrangeiros diretos abundantes, uma balança comercial saudável e um déficit em transações correntes controlado. As contas públicas ainda são uma fonte de preocupação, que torna imperativo a aprovação de novas medidas de ajuste fiscal.

Na China, o “Monetary Report” do 4Q confirmou a postura mais hawkish (dura, apertada) por parte do PBoC. Segundo a Goldman Sachs:

The Q4 monetary policy report released over the weekend calls for “stable and neutral” monetary policy going forward, adopting the same phrase from last December’s Central Economic Work Conference. This clearly strikes a hawkish tone in our view, as it is in contrast with the report’s characterization of the past policy stance (described as "stable and relatively loose on occasions”). The report also sheds a bit more light on the asset size of banks’ off-balance sheet wealth management product exposures.In the PBOC’s official communication, any shifts in policy stance are seldom explicitly commented upon, and even when they are the language used is often fairly subtle. By that standard, in our view the Q4 monetary policy report is quite clear about the PBOC’s acknowledgment of the accommodative nature of its policy stance in the past year. The report points out that M2 growth has still been faster nominal GDP growth, and suggests that money is still increasing at a high pace relative to the actual need of economic growth. It also highlights a challenge faced by the PBOC—given that “various parties” hope for loose monetary conditions and would like the central bank to increase money supply when financial risks arise, credit extension has displayed “relatively strong impulsiveness”. In practice, the implementation of monetary policy has been “stable and relatively loose on occasions”, under the influence of various factors such as downward pressures on growth and volatile financial market movements.

No mercado de FX/Câmbio global, a posição técnica do CFTC mostrou mais uma rodada de redução das posições compradas em USD. Este relatório está em linha com o movimento recente do dólar no mundo e mostra um mercado com quadro técnicao cada vez mais saudável, porém em meio a grandes dúvidas em relação ao cenário para política monetária, fiscal e econômica em geral que será adotada nos EUA. Para a Goldman Sachs:

In this week's report, with data through Tuesday, February 14, USD net long positioning decreased by another $2.1bn. USD net longs have now fallen for six consecutive weeks, shedding a total of $11.5bn in that time and $13.4bn since the FOMC hiked rates in mid-December. As a point of comparison, the drop in USD net longs since the December FOMC is about 65% of the decline over the same period a year ago. The difference this time around is that the Dollar has been something of an idiosyncratic story, while last year the Dollar selloff was driven by a broader risk-off move as China tensions escalated and came on the heels of the ECB disappointment on December 3, 2015.

The drop in USD net longs came mostly against JPY, where net short positioning decreased by $0.5bn, and the commodity currencies, AUD and CAD, where net long positioning increased by $0.6bn and $0.8bn respectively. EUR net shorts increased $0.2bn.