Dólar forte!

O destaque desta manhã fica por conta do movimento de fortalecimento do dólar no mundo. Os 3 vetores que comentei na tarde de ontem (vide abaixo) ainda são fundamentais para a dinâmica do mercado no curto-prazo. Eu adicionaria, contudo, a posição técnica como um fator importante neste momento.

Nas últimas semanas, vimos uma expressiva redução na posição comprada em dólar ao redor do mundo. O movimento explicou grande arte do desempenho ruim do USD neste inicio de 2017 e, agora, com uma posição mais saudável, pode estar ajudando a dar ímpeto a um fortalecimento da moeda dos EUA. Segundo a Goldman Sachs:

In this week's report, containing data through Tuesday, January 31, USD net long positioning fell by $2.2bn. Other than CHF, USD net longs decreased against every currency in this report, and the $0.9bn drops in both EUR and JPY net shorts were the largest moves this week. USD positioning came into 2017 with $27.8bn in net longs and shed $7bn of those in just the last two weeks. This comes at a time when interest rate differentials have been steady. As we have emphasized, rate differentials are by far the most important driver of the Dollar, so this divergence is potentially alarming. We believe the principal reason for the divergence is “Dollar down” rhetoric from the new administration, which we think highlights the constraints facing President Trump, rather than likely outcomes. After all, a policy mix that combines fiscal stimulus and protectionism is hard to reconcile with a weaker currency, even if that is what the new administration wants. In short, speculative Dollar longs are only modest, so the potential for a positioning unwind is small, and the fundamentals firmly favor Dollar.

EUR and JPY positioning entered 2017 on opposite trajectories; EUR net shorts had decreased by $10bn in the last two months of 2016 whereas JPY net short positioning had increased by $14bn in that time. Both EUR and JPY positioning began the year with roughly $9bn in net shorts, and since then they have moved in lockstep, never differing by more than $0.3bn.

Em adição ao que já comentei na tarde de ontem (vide abaixo) copio aqui a visão do estrategista de FX do Morgan Stanley em relação a China, muito em linha com a minha visão:

Watching China’s credit data. Chinese press is reporting this morning that the regulators have asked commercial banks to scale back on new lending this month after what was expected to be a record lending month in January. The new guidance also suggests that banks will need to report on expected lending to both companies and individuals one month in advance. Our MSCHEX indicator of the Chinese economy is already showing signs of slowing down in December, so we need to watch out for a broader spillover from tighter monetary conditions. The CRB rind index has slowed its ascent so we continue to watch this indicator closely as a sign of real commodity demand. If the Chinese economy does start slowing in 2H17 then the AUD will be the most vulnerable currency in G10.

No Brasil, Michel Temer indicou Alexandre de Moraes como Ministro do STF. Segundo a consultoria política CAC:

O presidente da República demonstrou que quer um voto no STF, seja para defender as reformas no momento de sua revisão judicial, seja para garantir uma voz do governo em questões fiscais ou mesmo ter um observador amigável no curso da fase judicial da operação Lava Jato. O governo ficou mais forte e ainda terá a cadeira do ministro da Justiça para contemplar os aliados no Congresso. (CAC 
Todos os direitos reservados)