Juros nos EUA em foco.

Os ativos de risco estão abrindo o dia com o dólar mais forte, as bolsas e as commodities sobre pressão, e com uma leve abertura de taxa de juros nos EUA. Acredito que o curto-prazo será guiado pela direção das taxas de juros nos EUA, que estão novamente testando os picos deste ciclo econômico.

Não apenas o atual patamar dos juros nos EUA será importante (chegando aos 3% no vértice de 10 anos), mas a sua direção e a sua velocidade de abertura serão fundamentais para o ambiente global a risco. Já ficou claro nos últimos meses que enquanto os juros nos EUA estão no meio deste processo de abertura de taxas, os movimentos costumam perdurar por alguns dias (ou algumas semanas), com aberturas em torno de 20 a 50bps.

A dinâmica do mercado tem sido de abertura estrutural de taxas, porém em rodadas concentradas em alguns dias/semanas, seguidas de movimentos de acomodação no novo patamar. A dinâmica dos últimos dias mostra que podemos estar no meio de mais uma dessas rodadas.

Sendo assim, em nada alterei minha visão já expressada aqui nos últimos dias: https://mercadosglobais.blogspot.com.br/2018/04/eua-juros-de-10-anos-proximos-aos-picos.html e aqui https://mercadosglobais.blogspot.com.br/2018/04/brasil-politica-em-foco.html.

No Brasil, Joaquim Barbosa declarou que sua candidatura ainda não está confirmada e sofre resistência de sua família e do próprio partido, o PSB.

Voltando ao tema anterior, gostaria de colocar abaixo o comentário do DB sobre o tema discorrido acima:

Indeed we’ve come a long way very quickly. As we started last week WTI Oil was trading at $62 and 10 year Treasuries at around 2.78%. 10 days later and yesterday oil peaked at $69.5 (currently $68.3) and Treasuries ended at 2.911% yesterday. Oil is at the highest since December 2014 and US 10yrs are within 4bps of their mid-February highs which in turn were the highs since late 2013/early 2014. As an aside we haven’t been above 3.05% since 2011. For the record, 10 year Bund yields were also around 3% back then as opposed to the still moribund (pardon the pun) 0.598% close yesterday which was nearly 7bps higher on the day. Meanwhile US 10 year breakevens marked a fresh high since July 2014 while the 2s10s and 5s30s steepened 3.7bp and 1.4bp respectively.

Interestingly the probability (according to Bloomberg) of four Fed rates hikes in 2018 is now at the highest of the year - at around 33% - from 18% at the start of last week. A reminder that DB has long felt 4 rates hikes (one done) this year and 4 next year are likely.

As discussed above Oil has certainly played its part in the recent move but other commodities have also contributed. For metals (although yesterday was a down day - see below), the big driver appears to be the sanctions imposed on Russia's Rusal(the largest aluminium supplier outside of China) by the US which has seen a significant volume of metals (namely aluminium) removed from the market. Tariffs talk has also contributed and LME Aluminium is up 24.0% in April alone. At the same time our commodities strategists noted that this has come at a time when China's primary supply growth in Aluminium is set to decelerate sharply this year on a combination of limited new capacity and cost pressures. For Oil, the story is more one of fundamentalswith OPEC highlighting that high inventories, which had weighed on the market for the last few years, have now been largely wiped out, helping to rebalance the market. The demand side of the equation is also said to have improved of late in the lead up to the northern hemisphere summer. It's worth noting that OPEC energy ministers have been meeting over the last 36 hours. Watch out for any headlines.