Risk On!

Na ausência de novidades relevantes durante a noite, os ativos de risco estão mantendo a toada positiva que vem sendo a regra na últimas semanas. Ontem a tarde comentamos neste fórum a respeito do viés positivo dos investidores nas reuniões do FMI ao longo do final de semana, o que ajudou na captação de uma emissão relevante de Argentina e ajudou a dar um tom positivo aos ativos de risco na segunda-feira, mesmo após as reuniões da OPEP em Doha não selarem um acordo sobre a produção do cartel.

O Morgan Stanley, hoje, resumiu muito bem o cenário que podemos estar diante:

The Fed is running a ‘triple put’ and the impact of this enlarged Fed safety net could be seen yesterday. Although the failed Doha meeting led to some commentators suggesting an effective break of the OPEC cartel, USD declined while oil recovered from earlier losses. The Russell 2000 has closed above its 200DMA and the Dow Jones has reached its highest level since July, suggesting that the 'Fed put' works on the US side too, supported by further gains of US high yield markets, suggesting that the risk premium is in decline. EM and commodity currencies should remain supported today. The global approach: The Fed now considering the evolution of financial conditions next to US inflation and employment when conducting its monetary policy has created a more international mandate for the US central bank. It seems the Fed stands ready to run a safety net not only for the economy and US capital markets, but also for the global economy and global capital markets, and here it is especially watching potentially disruptive capital flows. Hence we use the expression ‘triple put’. The IMF’s global stability report highlighting the increasing interdependence of DM and EM economies and financial markets has warned about weakening EM conditions spilling over into DM including the US. It seems that the IMF has endorsed the Fed taking a more global responsibility. Yesterday it was the Fed's Kashkari (non-voter) admitting the Fed of course has a "de facto, huge global influence", being aware of its impact on world economic developments ,mentioning China explicitly. The Fed's Rosengren (a voting dove) has warned that markets are under-pricing the Fed's likely rate path, calling investors "too pessimistic". However, past months have taught us to listen to Brainhard, Dudley and Yellen, ignoring other Fed speak. The Fed will release a policy statement next Wednesday. Recent economic information has not changed enough to justify the Fed adjusting its statement meaningfully, in our view.

No Brasil, os jornais de hoje afirmam que Armínio Fraga já avisou a Temer que não fará parte do governo. A montagem do ministério de Temer parece estar a todo vapor. Por hora, os nomes sendo ventilados seguem um scrip de perfis sólidos tecnicamente para a Fazenda e um misto de perfis políticos para os demais ministérios.