Rússia

Apesar do mercado estar, por hora, ignorando os últimos acontecimentos na Rússia, a situação no país continua tensa e sem solução em vista. A mídia tem falado em novas sanções econômicas ao país que, se anunciadas, podem gerar retaliações por parte da Rússia. Acredito que devemos manter uma atenção especial a situação, pois pode gerar ruídos pontuais nos ativos de risco. Segue comentário do MS sobre o tema:

Level 3 sanctions: Media reports suggest that we will soon see an EU ban on debt and equity-raising for Russian state banks, and restrictions on the sale of oilfield and defence technologies.  We also expect further US sanctions to match (and maybe exceed) the EU sanctions.  

Crunch time: Broad sanctions on Russia look likely to be imposed by the EU and US shortly, while the separatist movement in Donetsk and Luhansk, which Mr Putin says that he respects, has lost control of a number of towns to the Ukrainian armed forces.  We now see Russia’s response as the key to the crisis. 

Russia’s response: We think Putin now faces a stark choice between a pragmatic response, supporting de-escalation in Ukraine in return for neutrality, decentralisation and the lifting of sanctions – or what we characterise as a ‘patriotic’ response, in which Putin focuses on support to the pro-Russian separatist movement in Ukraine, which could trigger a further tightening of sanctions and deepen the divide with the West.  

Current orthodoxy or ‘patriotic’ policy? In the case of de-escalation, we would expect to see the authorities stick to the current policy mix of a flexible RUB and the fiscal rule, with continued trade and investment links with the West. With a ‘patriotic’ response, we would expect tighter monetary policy to support RUB; looser fiscal policy to support growth; and a focus on reducing economic links with the West to reduce vulnerability. Recently, we have seen some signs of economic policy drifting towards the ‘patriotic’ policy mix.