Rússia

O país continua passando por um processo de ajuste de preços agressivo de seus ativos financeiros. As declarações de Putin hoje, e as medidas anunciadas pelo CBR (ver detalhes abaixo), falharam totalmente em seu objetivo de evitar uma nova rodada de pressão nos ativos locais. Os ativos locais fechamento no pior momento do dia e nos piores níveis deste ciclo econômico. A ausência de uma estabilização mais permanente no preço do petróleo também tem sido um vetor negativo para o país. Os juros de 1 ano abriram 100bps para 14%, o RUB apresentou depreciação de 2,4%, atingindo o menor patamar da história e a bolsa local apresentou queda de 3%.

Continuo bastante preocupado com os últimos desdobramentos no país. O tamanho de sua economia, a exposição dos investidores estrangeiros aos ativos locais e a ausência de uma solução concreta para um problema grava podem tornar o país foco de um ataque especulativo, causando contágio a outras classes de ativos e regiões.

* Today the CBR has issued a press release on the situation in the currency market. The monetary authorities declared that they have conducted fx interventions on 1 December and will cut FX REPO rates for all maturities (1W, 28D, 12M) from LIBOR+1.5pp to LIBOR+0.5pp as of 5 December. According to the monetary authorities, the ruble exchange rate has significantly diverged from its fundamentals including those pertaining to the balance of payments, oil prices, interest rate differentials; economic activity and other factors. The CBR statement argues that excessive volatility in ruble dynamics is fraught with the emergence of financial stability threats and further upward pressure with respect to inflation expectations. The monetary authorities believe that the measures unveiled today should serve to realign ruble dynamics closer in line with economic fundamentals. In addition, the decision to cut the FX REPO rate may facilitate the attainment of equilibrium in the currency market and serve to lower the volatility of the ruble exchange rate. The CBR stated that it would continue monitoring the situation on the hard currency market and its impact on other segments of the financial markets and other sectors of the economy. In case of resurgence in threats to the stability of Russia’s financial system, the CBR stands ready to conduct further interventions with no limits in volumes and without prior announcement. The monetary authorities also announced that at the next MPC meeting scheduled for 11 December, the CBR will deliver not only the analysis of it’s decision on key rates but will also provide a detailed analysis of economic conditions and updated forecasts (from DB).