Summer Sadness.
O título de hoje é uma homenagem a um amigo deste fórum, que descreveu muito bem a dinâmica dos mercados financeiros globais ao longo deste mês.
Se não fosse pela parte final do dia de hoje, o comentário desta quarta-feira seria apenas uma repetição de tudo aquilo que venho comentando nos últimos dias (https://mercadosglobais.blogspot.com/).
Contudo, a divulgação do Beige Book nos EUA, que apresentou evidências anedóticas de aperto do mercado de trabalho, pleno emprego, fechamento do hiato do produto e pressões de salários, acabou levando o mercado a algum, ainda pequeno e incipiente, movimento um pouco menos construtivo. Ainda é cedo para afirmar que aquele curto-prazo mais favorável que tanto tenho comentado (vide link acima) ficou para trás, e o cenário estrutural de longo-prazo voltou a pauta, mas de fato um documento como este do Fed (Beige Book) me dá mais confiança de que nosso cenário base continua válido, mesmo que o caminho até ele ainda seja permeado de incertezas e volatilidade.
Os ativos no Brasil continuaram a seguir o humor global a risco. A queda do Ibovespa hoje está mais em linha com o movimento de queda recente das commodities. Observamos alguma pressão na parte curta da curva de juros (com leve flettening da curva), onde comentei ontem que não vejo prêmios suficientes. O comentário de ontem relativo ao posicionamento mais defensivo segue válido (https://mercadosglobais.blogspot.com/2018/07/os-ativos-de-risco-estao.html).
Não há informações novas relevantes em relação ao cenário econômico ou político. A pesquisa no estado de São Paulo para presidente mostrou liderança de Bolsonaro, com Alckmin em segundo, cenário muito semelhante a pesquisas anteriores, ou seja, não há novidades nesta frente.
Alguns destaques do Beige Book nos EUA, cuja atenção foi chamada por nossa área econômica:
Overall Economic Activity
Economic activity continued to expand across the United States, with 10 of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reporting moderate or modest growth. The outliers were the Dallas District, which reported strong growth driven in part by the energy sector, and the St. Louis District where growth was described as slight. Manufacturers in all Districts expressed concern about tariffs and in many Districts reported higher prices and supply disruptions that they attributed to the new trade policies. All Districts reported that labor markets were tight and many said that the inability to find workers constrained growth. Consumer spending was up in all Districts with particular strength in Dallas and Richmond. Contacts reported higher input prices and shrinking margins. Six Districts specifically mentioned trucking capacity as an issue and attributed it to a shortage of commercial drivers. Contacts in several Districts reported slow growth in existing home sales but were not overly concerned about rising interest rates. Commercial real estate was largely unchanged.
Economic activity continued to expand across the United States, with 10 of the 12 Federal Reserve Districts reporting moderate or modest growth. The outliers were the Dallas District, which reported strong growth driven in part by the energy sector, and the St. Louis District where growth was described as slight. Manufacturers in all Districts expressed concern about tariffs and in many Districts reported higher prices and supply disruptions that they attributed to the new trade policies. All Districts reported that labor markets were tight and many said that the inability to find workers constrained growth. Consumer spending was up in all Districts with particular strength in Dallas and Richmond. Contacts reported higher input prices and shrinking margins. Six Districts specifically mentioned trucking capacity as an issue and attributed it to a shortage of commercial drivers. Contacts in several Districts reported slow growth in existing home sales but were not overly concerned about rising interest rates. Commercial real estate was largely unchanged.
Employment and Wages
Employment continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts. Labor markets were described as tight, with most Districts reporting firms had difficulty finding qualified labor. Shortages were cited across a wide range of occupations, including highly skilled engineers, specialized construction and manufacturing workers, IT professionals, and truck drivers; some Districts indicated labor shortages were constraining growth. Districts noted firms were adding work hours, strengthening retention efforts, partnering with local schools, and converting temporary workers to permanent, as well as raising compensation to attract and retain employees. On balance, wage increases were modest to moderate, with some differences across sectors; a couple of Districts cited a pickup in the pace of wage growth.
Employment continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace in most Districts. Labor markets were described as tight, with most Districts reporting firms had difficulty finding qualified labor. Shortages were cited across a wide range of occupations, including highly skilled engineers, specialized construction and manufacturing workers, IT professionals, and truck drivers; some Districts indicated labor shortages were constraining growth. Districts noted firms were adding work hours, strengthening retention efforts, partnering with local schools, and converting temporary workers to permanent, as well as raising compensation to attract and retain employees. On balance, wage increases were modest to moderate, with some differences across sectors; a couple of Districts cited a pickup in the pace of wage growth.
Prices
Prices increased in all Districts at a pace that was modest to moderate on average; reports showed upticks in inflation in several Districts. The prices of key inputs rose further, including fuel, construction materials, freight, and metals; a few Districts described these input price pressures as elevated or strong. Tariffs contributed to the increases for metals and lumber. However, the extent of pass-through from input to consumer prices remained slight to moderate. Movements in agricultural commodities prices were mixed across products and Districts. Pricing pressures are expected to intensify further moving forward in some Districts, while in others the outlook is for stable price increases at a modest to moderate pace.
Prices increased in all Districts at a pace that was modest to moderate on average; reports showed upticks in inflation in several Districts. The prices of key inputs rose further, including fuel, construction materials, freight, and metals; a few Districts described these input price pressures as elevated or strong. Tariffs contributed to the increases for metals and lumber. However, the extent of pass-through from input to consumer prices remained slight to moderate. Movements in agricultural commodities prices were mixed across products and Districts. Pricing pressures are expected to intensify further moving forward in some Districts, while in others the outlook is for stable price increases at a modest to moderate pace.
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