Otimismo no mundo. Situação do BNDES no Brasil.

Os ativos de risco estão abrindo a semana em tom mais positivo. No lado negativo, destaque para a queda das bolsas na China, que não foram capazes, contudo, de contaminar a dinâmica no resto da Ásia e, esta manhã, na Europa e nos futuros de índices dos EUA.

O dólar opera majoritariamente em queda ao redor do mundo, no que pode ser o início de uma tendência mais prolongada de dólar fraco no mundo. Ainda me parece cedo para fazer tal afirmação, mas se há uma tendência que eu começo a acreditar de maneira mais estrutural seria de um dólar mais fraco ao redor do mundo e, em especial, contra algumas moedas de G10. As commodities poderiam se favorecer deste movimento.

De qualquer maneira, ainda há muita nebulosidade para recomendar uma posição agressiva nesta frente, mas alguma alocação já seria recomendada.

A noite trouxe pouquíssimas novidades relevantes além do que eu já vinha escrevendo nos últimos dias e pode ser revisto aqui: https://mercadosglobais.blogspot.com/.

No Brasil, o novo governo quer uma devolução maior do BNDES. O BTG Pactual fez um excelente resumo desta situação. Abaixo, copio o texto de Carlos Sequeira e Bernardo Teixera do BTG Pactual:

	Finance Minister wants to accelerate BNDES debt repayments to the Treasury‎
	One of President Bolsonaro economic team’s main pillar is to accelerate the privatization program. The goal is to raise money to reduce Brazil’s alarmingly high levels of public debt. However, the process of privatizing companies may be time-consuming as it depends on Congressional approval and a mesh of red tape. A quick way to generate cash and start reducing the country's public debt would be to accelerate the return of the money that BNDES owes to the Treasury, something Finance Minister Paulo Guedes has already started to negotiate.
	Payment to the treasury (still under negotiation) could total R$100bn in 2019
	The new economic team is looking for the BNDES to repay to the treasury up to R$100bn in 2019 — the development bank still has a debt of R$260bn to pay and the original repayment schedule foresees only R$26bn being paid this year. To be able to pay an amount close to what the economic team is looking for, the bank will probably have to sell part (or all) of its stakes in Brazilian listed companies. In 2018, BNDES has already accelerated the sale of equity stakes — from January to September 2018, the bank sold R$6.4bn in equity stakes, out of a guidance of R$12bn. In 2017, it sold R$6.7bn and R$1.7bn in 2016.
	Several names we cover could come under a big selling pressure
	At the end of September, BNDES owned stakes worth (at current market prices) ~R$100bn. The size of BNDES’ stakes varies massively depending on which company you look at. In some cases, its stakes represent up to a quarter of the company (see page 3 for complete table with all companies and BNDES’ respective stakes). If BNDES decides to sell some of these stakes, selling pressure could be big. According to our estimates and based on the number of trading days, the stocks (under our coverage) more exposed to selling pressure are CPLE3 (237 trading days), TIET11 (90), JBSS3 (89), and TUPY3 (81). Naturally, we would expect excessively large stakes to be sold via blocks.
	Some stocks wd gain from higher liquidity: Marfrig, Cemig, Tupy, Iochpe, Linx
	In some cases, we believe the positive effects of increased liquidity may outweigh the negatives of the overhang. High-quality companies with relatively low stock liquidity may benefit the most. Just to mention a few, we highlight Marfrig, Cemig, Tupy, Iochpe and Linx.